Bear squeezes, volatility spillovers and speculative attacks in the hyperinflation 1920s foreign exchange

Bear squeezes, volatility spillovers and speculative attacks in the hyperinflation 1920s foreign exchange

This paper examines some of the characteristics of the foreign exchange market in the 1920s floating period. Nominal returns appear to exhibit properties consistent with asset prices on modern more well-organized financial markets; i.e. they appear to be well described by martingales and possess persistent time dependent heteroscedasticity. In order to deal with the extreme kurtosis in the exch...

Scaling Foreign Exchange Volatility

When asset returns are normally distributed the risk of an asset over a long return interval may be estimated by scaling the risk from shorter return intervals. While it is well known that asset returns are not normally distributed a key empirical question concerns the effect that scaling the volatility of dependent processes will have on the pricing of related financial assets. This study prov...

Volatility in Foreign Exchange Rates

Four foreign exchange spot rate series, recorded on an hourly basis for a six-month period in 1986 are examined. A seasonal GARCH model is developed to describe the time-dependent volatility apparent in the percentage nominal return of each currency. Hourly patterns in volatility are found to be remarkably similar across currencies and appear to be related to the opening and closing of the worl...

The Influence of Structural Changes in Volatility on Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover among Iranian Gold and Foreign Exchange Markets

Common Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

The adverse effect of currency volatility on international trade has prompted the inception of the European Monetary System (EMS) and other measures of international policy coordination aimed at reducing intracurrency variability. Until "Black Wednesday" in September 1992 the EMS had some sucess in this objective, but following pressure on the Italian Lira, other ERM currencies (viz. Sterling, ...